If you have happened to see the movie “1408” you would recognize the phrase, “We’ve only just begun” as the song that plays on replay in John Cusak’s hotel room as he attempts his escape. At this point you probably are wondering what any of this has to do with the Homies league? Simply, much like this movie, our league is turning into one mediocre horror film. As we have kicked off into the last week of our fantasy regular season, some truly horrific things have taken place this year. For one, fantasy football is about to be over for six of you. The end of a fantasy football season is always a bummer as you must wait nine months for your potential redemption. But, we will get to all the playoff talk shortly, back to the horror.
Ness has clinched our one seed and a first round playoff bye…I can think of nothing more horrific. Rohde has also made the playoffs. While a first time championship would be pure jubilation to Sean, it would simply be a nightmare to the rest of the league to lose out on the longest running joke of said league. Ryan Scott has now secured an opportunity to put his name on the board for a second time as champion. Frightening. However, nothing is more ghastly then looking at our standings. Regardless, it is time for the playoffs, so let’s break it down.
Ness has captured the 1 seed. He is 9-3 and headed to the semifinals regardless of what happens these next two weeks. There is not too much to add to this fact.
Here is where things get interesting. There are currently four more guys that have locked up playoff spots: Ryan Scott, Stumpf, Rohde and Gross Jr. The crazy thing is that none of the four play one another to guarantee the second seed and first round bye. Also, Tagye has a very small shot at a bye, so here is how it plays out:
Win AND Stumpf does not outscore him by 4.7 points.
Win AND Ryan Scott L. Win/Lose AND Ryan Scott Win/Lose and outscore him by 4.7 points.
Win AND Ryan Scott & Stumpf L AND Gross Jr. does not outscore him by 22.8 points. Win/Lose AND Ryan Scott & Stumpf Win/Lose and outscore them by 51.5 points (seems unlikely).
Win AND Ryan Scott/Stumpf/Rohde all L. Win AND Ryan Scott/Stumpf L & Rohde Win/Lose and outscore him by 22.8 points.
Everything needs to go absolutely perfectly.
#3 Seed – #5 Seed:
Once the dust settles on who earns that coveted two seed and first round bye, then there will be an even bigger mess figuring out seeds three through five. While most of the scenarios hinge on the same circumstances above, I will not go through all the scenarios again. However, the likely culprits in this situation are Ryan Scott, Rohde, Stumpf, Gross Jr. and Tagye. They all have legitimate rationale for falling into any one of those positions.
This is where the fun starts. Here is what we know. Ness is the 1 seed. Ryan Scott, Stumpf, Rohde and Gross Jr. all have secured a playoff spot, no seed yet determined. Leaving one playoff spot for that lucky fella. Only one team has been eliminated, which happens to be our current champion, so we WILL HAVE A NEW CHAMPION! This leaves Tagye, Mitt, Dan, Alex Smith, Wells and Gross Sr. all with the possibility of competing for a title.
This is arguably the most simple scenario in the entire league. If Tagye wins, he is in. From there seed to be determined. Amazingly enough, if he were to lose he would still have an opportunity to get in. However, that would take a Wells win and a massive effort for all the other 5-7 teams to lose, which based upon schedule this week is possible. Nuts.
Hard to say this guy does not deserve to be in. The points scored might be the thing that ultimately saves Mitt from elimination as he is the clearly above the rest of the competition. He needs some help though. A win and a Tagye loss gets him in. A loss ends his season.
Dan falls much into the category that Mitt sees himself in. High on points but down on luck, for once in his life. Dan still has a very real shot at getting in, however he needs to win and have Tagye and Mitt both lose. Again, a loss and it is on to the 2018 draft board.
Things start to get a little more murky as we work our way down the standings. If I am tracking this correctly, which I am most likely not, Smith needs to have Tagye, Mitt and Dan all suffer defeat while he picks up a win. All of that and he is dancing.
My brain is starting to hurt. Amazing that these scenarios are still very real coming into this last week. Wells needs to beat Mitt in Week 13 and see Tagye, Dan and Alex Smith all take a loss as his point total is too low to overcome.
And here is the Hail Mary. If this happens it will forever be known as the “Hair Mary” due to the luscious locks of Gross Sr. So Gross Sr., who is playing last place Ryan Smith, will need to win. He will also need Tagye, Mitt, Dan and Alex Smith to lose AND outscore Wells by 29.1 points to advance. It will be one of the bigger shocks if this plays out.
Here it is, this is the mess of our league. Look at what we have created. Absolute crap. Good luck to everyone, playoff breakdowns will come next week when all the dust has settled. However, I would be remiss if I did not make a prediction on the weekend results. So, this is how I think it ends up:
#1 – Ness
#2 – Gross Jr.
#3 – Stumpf
#4 – Ryan Scott
#5 – Rohde
#6 – Dan (as tempting as it is to put in the Hair Mary)
Enjoy week 13, for half of you it will be your last.